บทคัดย่อ
The political economy of tobacco products and optimal cigarette taxationThe study analyzes the major problems and policies confronting Thailand with respect to the present-day tobacco issues and highlights the importance of understanding the role of political and economic factors which affect both the demand for and the supply of tobacco products. This study explores the political economy of the US policy on exports of cigarettes that led to trade sanctions and the opening of markets in many Asian countries including Thailand in the late 1980s. In the past, Thailand used to have a dedicated excise tax on cigarettes called 'contributions to education and public health'. It would ve useful to bring back such a tax again. A policy like ear-marking funds in this way could help simplify the implementation of public programs on tobacco consumption control by encouraging government spending on activities that would directly reduce both tobacco consumption and smuggling. The empirical results indicate that a decrease in real prices of cigarettes has a significant effect on an increase in tobacco consumption. An increase in real income also has an effect but less significant. While an opening of the market to foreign products has no direct effect, an increase in the number of smokers of foreign cigarettes is positively correlated with an increase in consumption of domestic products. The study found the price elasticity of demand for cigarettes -0.65 for the model of myopic addiction and -0.73 for the model of rational addiction. Policies of revenue generating and health promotion might, at least, be able to go together in some harmony if the government were not addicted to revenues from this industry. One important task for the government among all public policies on smoking control at present is to determine the 'right prices' for these products, In this study, several optimal tax models are developed under varying assumptions of market structure. The simulation results suggest that there is still an opportunity for the government to field both health benefits and favorable increases in tax revenue at the same time. Although there can be no definitve answer for the optimal tax level at this time due to lack of data, it is, however, suggested that an optimal tax could be higher than the present level. Thailand is at the crossroads with respect to the direction and development of its tobacco industry. Tobacco is not simply an economic. It is a dangerous substance that requires regulation. The contradictory policy of having the tobacco monopoly as an improtant source of government revenue as well as a policy to discourage smoking at the same tine has put the government in a difficult position. Thailand already has a vital weapon against tobacco use, i.e., the two major tobacco control laws. Only if the government seriously implements a firm policy to reduce smoking, and only if the Thailand Tobacco Monopoly follows, the Cabinet instruction on March 6, 1990, as well as its own policy to support the Ministry of Public Health on antismoking campaigns, can it be expected that smoking in Thailand will decrease in the near future.
