Abstract
Objectives: This research was carried out to illustrate the most likely and most desirable scenarios of drug system in Thailand in the next decade. This included identification and analysis of the prominent agents of change and the suggestion of strategic plans to facilitate desirable events and the elimination of undesirable events. Methodology: It took the form of a qualitative research. Focus Group meetings, Ethnographic Delphi, and Interview In-depth techniques gathered the appropriate information. Nearly one hundred experts from the pharmaceutical sphere, including manufacturers, importers, drug stores, government regulators, non-government organization workers, drug users (professional and layman) and other related fields participated in eight Focus Group meetings in which guided imaginary and cross impact analysis techniques were used to compose the most desirable scenario. Three key resource persons with high social recognition were interviewed in order to envisage the most desirable scenario. Results: Competition, systems of control, drug-use behaviors, knowledge and the mass media were identified as the main structure of drug-use system. The pricing system has a high impact on pharmaceutical manufacturing and marketing systems. The most desirable scenario was divided into two parts as: change of environment (political system, national policy, knowledge-based society, and trend of healthcare behavior) and change of the existing drug system (perspective I: production, distribution, utilization, controlling; perspective II: product, price, place, promotion, and personnel). The manufacturing and government controlling systems would be in a stage of decline in the future, while distribution and utilization systems would be transformed in order to create a more effective situation. A group discussion was initiated to reveal the picture of the Thai drug system of the future. The most desirable scenario was illustrated in the perspectives of drug use behavior and competition of pharmaceutical market. Equity in drug accessibility, preventative drug use and integrated medicine would offer the most benefit to the entire population. Evolution of healthcare and the drug system at three levels (system, structure, and process) should be performed at the same time. Thai demand of drugs should indicate the appropriate level of drug supply in order to effectively balance demand and supply in the Thai pharmaceutical market.
