Abstract
The reform of human resources for health (HRH) is an essential component of healthcare reform in having adequate number of HRH to achieve good health of population. Hence, effective HRH planning is one of key elements to have proper number of competent HRH at the right time according to demand in complex and dynamic healthcare shaping from internal factor, such as educational system and labour market dynamic, and external factors, such as technology advancement and vigorous economy. This study employs “system dynamic” approach to demonstrate future healthcare services by extensive participation of related stakeholders, called “group model building” approach then future demand of HRH is developed. 47 health facilities including regional, general and district hospitals in Health region 2 are study sites. This study employs information from primary and secondary data for quantitation part and focus group discussion and in-depth interview for qualitative part. Stella Software is used to demonstrate future model of services. This study emphasizes 5 areas of services, namely eye services, kidney services, general surgery services, services for non-communicable disease and cancer services. For Opthalmological services in the next 10 years, OPD patients will increase to 270,000 visits. Patients with cataract will slightly decrease to 135,000 patients while patients with glaucoma will increase to 108,000 patients. For kidney service, patients with hemodialysis will increase to 4,400 patients while ones with peritoneal dialysis will reach 1,700 patients. Furthermore, chronic kidney disease level 4-5 will increase to 47,000 patients which exceed service capacity in health region 2. For patients with non-communicable disease, patients with hypertension in health region 2 will approach 2 million in the next 10 year while ones with DM will reach 500,000 at the same periods. For general surgery services, non-elective cases will over 40,000 patients whereas elective cases will reach 47,000 patients. Patients with liver cancer will increase. However, mortality rate will decline stemming from early detection and more effective treatment. This study demonstrates that an imbalance of supply of resources to deal with an increase service demand still exists. In summary, to tackle with an increase demand of health services in the future need proper management of health resources. This study demonstrates some effective management, for example an increase staff’s capacity, expands utilization of medical equipment and infrastructures such as operating room and pool-resource including strengthening HR development and training.
