Abstract
The strategic planning of a specialized workforce is crucial for the effective management of
the healthcare system and is significant at all service levels. The study aimed to establish evidence
and academic guidelines for specialist workforce planning, comprising four objectives: to assess the
current demand for specialists in Thailand, to project the demand for specialists in 2027, 2032, and
2037 under various scenarios, to estimate the supply of specialists in 2027, 2032, and 2037, and to
formulate policy recommendations for specialist workforce planning in Thailand. The report
encompasses an investigation of the demand for expert labor and support workforce across 16 primary
branches in Thailand, together with 8 sub-branches in surgery and internal medicine.
The research employed many methodologies to address the research aims, incorporating both
quantitative and qualitative approaches. The study's conceptual framework involves analyzing
specialist demand through a demand-side approach. The research utilized the World Health
Organization's standards on Workload Indicators of Staffing Need (WISN). It additionally employed the
Benchmarking and population ratio methodologies. The primary determinant utilized for projecting
future demand was the demographic composition by age and gender. The analysis of personnel
support or supply employs the stock-and-flow approach, utilizing current data alongside retirement,
retention, and new graduate rates, which are projected using the Exponential Smoothing technique.
The one-way sensitivity analysis for uncertain parameters was adopted for both demand and supply
sides to indicate the possible results. The acquisition of workload data was conducted using
questionnaires and interviews. The examination of situations and the aggregation of policy perspectives
constituted qualitative research. The classification of health services by specialist type utilized
anonymous secondary data from national sources.
The study results reveal a heightened demand for health services, an increasing need for
specialists, and an augmented supply of specialist staff. Thailand has generated a sufficient number of
doctors to ensure the future availability of specialists, relative to the total demand and supply of
medical professionals. The overall findings reveal a present deficiency of specialists across all
disciplines, particularly in comparison to those in developed nations. Nevertheless, a comparison of
the demand and supply of specialist physicians in Thailand, medical internists, family medicine,
emergency medicine, surgery, and psychiatry are comparatively more deficient than other specialties.
The demand for some professionals is declining due to alterations in the demographic composition of
the Thai population. The scenario analysis identified the significance of non-communicable chronic
disease variables, drug risk factors, and policy factors as crucial for the planning and management of
the specialized workforce, both currentlyand in the future. Consistent evaluation of workforce planning
is feasible and should be conducted to timely adapt to the demand for health services. The review of
policies affecting the provision of primary, secondary, and tertiary health services s is essential to assure
alignment, which will directly influence future specialist workforce planning.
