Abstract
The global temperature has increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F ) during the past century. The
same period has seen an increase in natural disasters and disease outbreaks. Reviews of the evidence of
links between climate change and human health suggest that a warmer climate could result in increases in
mosquito-borne diseases like malaria due to increased reporting of malaria cases in temperate climates
and malaria epidemics in upland areas. Within the range of survivable temperatures, warmer temperatures
reduce the duration of the extrinsic cycle of malaria parasites in mosquito vectors. Therefore, higher
temperatures should result in higher rates of malaria transmission. Mathematical-model estimations suggest
that more deaths will be attributable from malaria. However, during the past decade, the number of
malaria cases has not changed markedly, with 300-500 million cases per annum and > 1-3 million deaths.The complex natural history of malaria transmission involves interactions between humans, anopheline
vectors, and malaria parasites. Many different factors influence these three primary components, including
climatic, ecological, environmental, socio-economic and human behavioral factors. Thus, malaria transmission
may not simply be affected only by global warming; the relative importance of all the factors
involved should be considered jointly. Measures to control malaria–developing new preventive methods,
improving diagnosis, more effective treatment should all be encouraged and supported. An analysis of
the impact of global warming on malaria has implications for the effects of global warming on other
disease outbreaks, i.e., that they may not occur, or if they do, they may not be as serious as some predict.
However, disease surveillance systems must be closely monitored by epidemiologists if global warming
persists. There is an urgent need for ongoing public debate regarding what, if any, action should be taken
to reduce future global warming, and the development of more holistic information about the epidemiology
of disease in this context.
