Abstract
The study aimed to forecast human resources for health (HRH) requirements for primary health care services in the next 10 year (2026). The HRH requirements covered both public and private sectors for 3 types of services, (1) curative and Thai traditional medical services; (2) health promotion, disease protection and health risk factor interventions; and (3) rehabilitation services for elderly care. HRH included in this study were: doctors, dental health personnel, pharmacists, nurses, public health personnel, physical therapists, Thai traditional medical personnel, and medical technologists. The combination of health need method and health demand method were used for HRH forecast. The results showed that when the primary health service system maintains the status quo, in 2026, the primary health care system required 9,826-12,009 doctors; 26,249–32,082 nurses; 16,797–20,530 public health personnel; 6,043–7,385 physical therapists; 5,880–7,186 Thai traditional medical personnel; 9,187–11,229 Thai traditional medical assistants; 4,757–5,814 dental health personnel; 1,997–2,441 pharmacists; and 578–706 medical technologists. However, when 25% service utilizations are shifted from secondary health care services to primary health care services and elderly care services in communities are increased in the future scenario, the system requires 23,523-28,751 doctors; 32,523-39,753 nurses; 6,695-8,182 pharmacists; 18,568-22,694 public health personnel; and 811-991 medical technologists.
