Abstract
Previous forecasts of dental health work force demand in Thailand mostly used health need method, adopting health need data in professional view linked to demand for dentist only, contradicting the real practice which dentist works together with dental nurse. On the supply side, the loss rates especially for dental nurses were overlooked. The present study used different technique from the past, i.e., health demand technique mixed with service target. Scope of the present study was limited to dental health organizations with major service role. Task shift from dentist to dental nurse was assumed to be completely shifting, with no overlapping of duty. Supply side started with actual number of active personnel, then adding with actual number of students in production line and current loss rate. The result in 2026 showed 15,742-16,764 dentists in demand (dentist to population ratio of 1 : 4,217 and 1 : 3,960 respectively), and 8,669–12,140 dental nurses in demand (dental nurse to population ratio of 1 : 7,657 and 1 : 5,468 respectively), varying on proportion of clinical dental service of each profession. However, balancing the supply of and demand for both dentist and dental nurse by limiting all treatment services to dentist while health prevention and promotion services to dental nurse, the production rate of dentist can stay at the present rate, while retention rate of dental nurse should be paid higher attention.
