Abstract
The present study intended to provide information relevant to human resources for health (HRH) planning in Thailand. The objectives were to analyze and predict requirement for HRH including physicians, nurses, dentists, pharmacists, Thai traditional physicians, Thai traditional physician assistances, physical therapists, and medical technologists in the secondary care setting. We applied the utilization-based model and the approach developed by Segal. The study had 5 steps: (1) collecting utilization data by types of services (the public services under the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH), other public services and the private services); (2) forecasting the requirement for health services in the future using a change in demographics; (3) calculation of the total work hours that each HRH type spending on patients; (4) calculation of full time equivalence; and (5) conducting sensitivity analysis. We found that in 2026 Thailand would require more HRH: physicians 12,432 FTE; nurses 52,392 FTE; pharmacists 5,042 FTE; dentists 5,869 FTE; medical technologists 4,699 FTE; physical therapists 1,795 FTE; Thai traditional physicians 4,202 FTE; and Thai traditional physician assistants 3,043 FTE. However, if we add the other work (not only the health services work), the HRH will require more: an increase in physicians from 12,434 FTE to 14,297 FTE; pharmacists to 7,260 FTE; nurses to 60,251 FTE; dentists to 6,749 FTE; medical technologists to 5,404 FTE; physical therapists to 2,064 FTE; and Thai traditional physicians to 5,463 FTE. The current study confirms that Thailand will need more HRH in the future. It indicates the importance of demographic factor as an increase requirement on elderly health services. An increase in HRH production including financial and non-financial incentive policy options should be studied in details in the near future.
