Abstract
Thailand is encountering problems regarding the economic, social and political instability leading to inequality. Significant factors affecting the next decade health system include the complete aged Thailand, increment urban communities, more frequent and severe natural disasters, emerging infectious animal and plant diseases related to migration and increasing chronic diseases. In this regard, the National Human Resource for Health Committee has appointed a subcommittee to study public health human resources planning for the next decade. Human resources requirements can be forecasted through the demand and supply projection. The demand projection relies on a health demand approach involving only the service setting, and population ratio. The findings of the study revealed that most public health human resources are currently working for the Ministry of Public Health, i.e., sub-district health promoting hospital, followed by district public health office, and community hospital. At present, there are at least 76 educational institutes producing public health graduates by offering both 4 year bachelor’s degree program and continuing bachelor’s degree program, at a capacity ranging from 30–3,776 persons/institute/year. The public health human resources demand projection over the next decade found that if the production capacity of public health human resources remains unchanged, the human resources will exceed requirements of the health system in all scenarios as follows: scenario 1 the population ratio, 75,626-89,894 persons will exceed requirements; scenario 2 the status quo primary care system, 68,122-82,390 persons will exceed requirements; and scenario 3 the intensive primary care system (with no outpatient service at the tertiary care level and 25% transferred to the primary care system), 50,830-65,098 persons will exceed requirements. According to the present research results of a high surplus of public health human resources, the Council of Community Public Health should establish standards and core competencies of public health human resources in alignment with changing health system over the next decade, take controls and oversee quality of public health educational institutes, as well as jointly plan public health human resources requirements under the collaboration between health systems and educational institutes in order to contain number of graduates not exceeding requirements.
